Impact of Clean Energy Interventions on Development in India: A Techno-Economic Analysis

As a response to repercussions to COVID-19, India's government announced ‘Atma Nirbhar Bharat’ or a ‘self-reliant’ India, which is to the tune of INR 20 trillion or 10 percent of the country’s GDP. The package has five pillars: economy, infrastructure, system, vibrant demography, and demand. Energy is central to all the five pillars of India’s recovery package. Thus, a more detailed scenario based analysis of the energy systems in India and the macro-economic implications is required. Two sets of models are considered for this analysis. An energy system model, MARKAL (MARKet Allocation MARKAL), is used for analysing energy supply and demand. A simulation-based dynamic, recursive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used for analysing the nature of future economic growth and its consequent impacts on investment and employment.

·         In the green recovery scenario, the model predicts decrease in import dependence for coal; import dependence rises slightly for oil and more than threefold for gas.

·         The share of renewables in primary energy supply is 8.5 percent in 2031 in the green recovery scenario as compared to 4.5 per cent in the reference scenario.

·         The model predicts additional 117 lakhs jobs by 2031 in the green recovery scenario as compared to 54 lakhs jobs by 2031 in the reference scenario.

·         Clean energy investments as a percentage of GDP at factor cost in 2031 is 4.66 per cent in the reference scenario; in the green recovery scenario, it increases to 11.23 per cent in 2031.