Validation of electricity demand projection

To make an assessment of electricity demand by consumer category in the State of Maharashtra, both in the medium and long-run [10th(2006-07) and 11th(2011-12) Plan periods respectively]. The assessment of demand in the short, medium and long run is an essential part of the planning process in the electricity sector. The short-run demand projection is the basis for scheduling load, maintenance programs, etc. The medium & long-run forecast, on the other hand, is used for capacity planning and strengthening of the T&D network. It is a universally accepted business practice among utilities across the world to carry out demand estimations for the future. Various methods of forecasting demand have been developed over the years. These include forecasting on the basis of trend analysis, end use estimations, econometric models, time series analysis and cointegration techniques. The choice of the method is based on the nature of data under study and the nature of forecast required. While trend methods serve well on secondary data for a forecast for the short run, econometric methods and end use methods are found to be more suited to forecasts for the long run.