Visualising future in pace with developed countries

There is growing concern on the future of energy to fuel the global economy, with a growing population and higher incomes, not only in the developed countries but also in the emerging markets like China and India. These concerns stem from the growing scarcity of fossil fuels, higher levels of air pollution and increased awareness on the global threat of climate change.

The first of these concerns is leading to fierce competition for fossil fuel resources, with various countries attempting to assert control over these resources through market measures and political or military means. Many commentators view the invasion of Iraq as an attempt to gain control over a hydrocarbon-rich country, and not as an effort to liberate a society from dictatorship, even as several other despotic regimes continue in power elsewhere without similar intervention.

The next few years are likely to see a frenetic race to gain access to conventional sources of supply in hitherto unexplored areas of the world and a concerted effort to develop and tap unconventional sources of energy through a global R&D programme, which India too must mount quickly. This would need to be preceded by radical restructuring and reform of India's scientific and industrial research, which has reached a level of stagnation undeserving of further increases in guaranteed funding from the public exchequer.

The future of energy would be defined by the results of close collaboration between industry and academia, and flexible and goal-oriented research institutions. The university system must play a part in this approach. Globally, of course, radical changes can be foreseen both on the supply and the consumption side.

On the supply side, a shift is envisaged towards a greater share for renewable sources of energy, such as solar photovoltaic, direct conversion of solar energy for thermal applications and power generation and greater use of wind energy and modern biomass.

There is worldwide growth in activity involving production of biofuels as a substitute for liquid petroleum products, essentially for the transport sector. But most such programmes represent measures that are unsustainable, with net environmental benefits that are questionable because of collection and movement to centralised processing facilities and due to large usage of chemical fertilisers and chemicals.

Even more serious is the conflict that most of these efforts represent between fuels versus food production. Use of corn, oil palm, rapeseed mustard and other food crops are apt examples, which go against the prospect of expansion or even continuation of these initiatives. There is much higher promise in the production of biofuels from species such as jatropha grown on land generally unsuitable for viable cultivation of food crops, and even more so from conversion of cellulosic material to ethanol. This would require substantial R&D, which India must undertake.

Another major shift that is long overdue in India and in various parts of the developing world is in respect of the long neglected problem of the energy needs of the poor. Around two billion people have no access to electricity or modern fuels.

The end-uses for which they require energy are for cooking, lighting and preferably some heat or motive power for small enterprises. The growing scarcity of biomass fuels has served to increase their hardship and privation, particularly women. The answer lies in strengthening or creating institutional mechanisms at the local level with technical, financial and organisational strengths for devising and managing supply at the local level based on overwhelming use of local renewable resources.

It is clear that the model used in the developed world using centralised sources of supply would be neither feasible in the near future nor environmentally acceptable. India has to address this challenge through sustainable exploitation of renewable resources. Nuclear energy may assume a growing share in many countries.

On the end-use side, the transport sector may see major transformation. While in the short and medium term, the share of biofuels is set to increase, in the longer term, vehicles will use hybrid technology to a much greater extent, with an ultimate shift to electricity as the sole source of energy. Meanwhile, a major expansion of public transport systems can be envisaged, with a substantial increase in the efficiency of the railways.