Let's go beyond Bali
But the global complexities of the problem require a multilateral agreement to meet the growing challenge on a worldwide basis. Such an agreement is planned under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol to be put in place by the end of 2009. Hence, progress at Bali was critical for ensuring that an agreement be completed within this timeframe.
It is important to understand the seriousness of the climate change problem if we are to appreciate the need for global action to counter it. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) clearly established that warming of the climate system was "unequivocal", and that most of the observed increase in global temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in human-induced GHG concentrations.
Projections of average global temperatures by the end of this century range from a best estimate at the lower end of 1.8 and at the upper end of 4.0 degrees C. Climate change will not proceed in a smooth and linear manner, and there is already enough evidence of an increase in intensity and frequency of heat waves, droughts, floods and extreme precipitation events (perhaps similar to what occurred in Mumbai earlier this year and in 2005).
We also have growing problems associated with melting of glaciers and overall scarcity of water across the world. The problem of sea level rise would have serious implications not only for various parts of our extensive coastline, but also in our neighbourhood - in Bangladesh and the Maldives.
Agriculture in India will also be significantly affected by climate change. The effects of warming are being observed in the form of decline in productivity of certain crops, such as wheat.
The problem of rain-fed agriculture, on which a large number of lives are dependent in this country, is particularly important, since adverse conditions arising out of changes in precipitation and water availability would affect the livelihoods of almost half a billion people. Given the fact that even if the concentration of GHGs were to be stabilised today we would still have to encounter climate change for several decades, this country as well as other regions of the world will have to adapt to climate change to minimise risk.
We would have to use our water resources much more efficiently. Agricultural practices may need to be altered to cope with higher temperatures and growing salinity of water resulting from sea level rise, particularly in areas not far from the coast.
Against this backdrop, it is essential for the global community to stabilise the earth's climate by stabilising the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere. The mood in the Bali conference clearly reflected a sense of urgency created by the IPCC's findings, with some countries eager to reach agreement on specific quantitative targets for reduction of emissions by 2020. There was, consequently, heated debate on this issue with a group of countries adamantly opposed to such targets. In the end a compromise was reached with the Bali Action Plan recognising "deep cuts" in global emissions will be required to achieve the ultimate objective of the convention.
A great deal of discussion also focused on the acceptance of some commitments by large developing countries, such as China and India. This issue was resolved through a compromise that specifies action on mitigation, including consideration of "Measurable, reportable and verifiable nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing country parties in the context of sustainable development, supported by technology and enabled by financing and capacity-building". It is, therefore, time for India to identify those measures that should be undertaken in any case to move away from an unsustainable pattern of development.
Even more important is the need for India to be counted among nations that seek stringent mitigation of GHG emissions because India is in several respects one of the countries likely to be seriously affected by the impacts of climate change. India would also gain a position of moral and political leadership by doing what it takes to be part of a global solution.
India's principled stand of asking developed countries to take the first steps in mitigation remains valid, but inaction to establish a pattern of sustainable development in this country would carry a heavy price. It is becoming clear that emulating the example of the developed nations is not only flawed in a global context but also harmful for our own future.
The current phase of negotiations under the UNFCCC is therefore a uniquely significant opportunity to correct the ills of the current pattern of development globally. But, India has to take the lead, if we are to follow Mahatma Gandhi's exhortation: "Be the change that you want to see in the world".