Indo-Pak relations: the way ahead

The Indo-Pak Summit between Prime Minister Vajpayee and President Musharraf ended without a joint statement by the two leaders. Considerable disappointment has been expressed by several persons whose voices are heard in this country on what appears to have been a meeting without any positive outcome. These feelings are largely the result of excessive expectations. Given the serious problems that have divided the two countries, it was unrealistic to expect that any solutions would emerge from one single meeting. Much of the build-up prior to the summit had been created by a hyperactive media in this country and the intense competition for headlines, which, to a large extent, were created without any substance. The rationale for accommodation between India and Pakistan is clear, but rational considerations seldom dominate international relationships and policies in most parts of the world. A South Asian region with close economic relations and mutual understanding can have substantial benefits for all the countries of South Asia. Not only would military expenditures reduce substantially, but economic cooperation would result in lower costs of goods and services for society in these countries. The Pakistani concern is that should trade be liberalized between the two countries, Indian goods and services would flood the Pakistani market, whereas Pakistan has very little to sell in India. However, one single commodity which Pakistan could benefit from greatly is by providing right of secure passage for Iranian gas flowing through a pipeline to India. The expectation is that for the size of pipeline being considered, Pakistan could earn up to 500 million US dollars by way of transit fees. It is for this reason that every successive Pakistani head of government has been in favour of this project, quite apart from the feeling of power that it would give any Pakistani government due to control over a critical flow of energy to India. The pipeline can only become a reality if relations between the two countries improve significantly, and at the same time improved relations would become a reality if the pipeline is implemented as a concrete project. It is hoped that the process started in Agra will lead to greater understanding between the two countries and that the foregone opportunities for economic development during the 54-year history after the partition of India can at least be recaptured belatedly at this stage.