Future shocks

Living in this world would get much more difficult if climate change continued unmitigated in the future. Already, average Arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global average rate in the past 100years. Contraction of snow covered area, increases in the depth of thaw over most permafrost regions and decrease in sea ice extent are projected. Arctic late summer ice is expected to disappear entirely by the latter part of the 21st century. There would bean increase in frequency of hot extremes, heat waves, heavy precipitation and tropical cyclones.

Mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined on average in both hemispheres, and this would continue, with serious implications for India, especially for northern India - the rivers originating in the Himalaya-Hindu Kush range depend on supply from the glaciers in the region. With a decline in the mass of ice, river water flow is expected to shrink.

There are also projections of decreased crop productivity for even small local temperature increases (1-2 degrees). While this would present a major challenge to India's prospects of self-sufficiency in food production, it can also impact global food security, with dire consequences for the poorest societies in the world. Another major impact of climate change is the growing scarcity of water in different parts of the world. In Africa, between 75 million and 250 million people may be exposed to increased water stress by 2020. Perhaps the most intractable impact for the world as a whole is the sea level rise, which has dire implications for small island states and coastal regions in different parts of the globe. The mega deltas of Asia such as Dhaka, Kolkata and Shanghai are at particular risk from coastal flooding, because they are not only centres of large populations, but they also contain major physical assets and infrastructure.

It is essential that the global community mounts major efforts to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) on an urgent basis. One particular scenario assessed by the IPCC clearly points to the imperative of emissions peaking by 2015.This was at the core of negotiations at the recently-held Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change held at Bali, Indonesia, which motivated discussions on the need to have emissions decline soon. The faster they do, the lower would be the future impact of climate change. Adapting to the impacts of climate change is essential not only because these have already reached serious proportions, but also because climate change will continue for several decades due to the inertia in the system even if we were to stabilise the concentration of GHGs at current levels.

The solution lies in restructuring the economy to reduce its footprint on the ecosystems of this planet. Today, human society bas the technological capability and aggregate economic strength to bring about the change that is required. The Brundtland Commission gave the world the definition of sustainable development as being one that meets the needs of the present generation without compromising on the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Climate change and the pattern of development that underlies its basic causes clearly negate the applicability of this definition to the present as well as future generations.

A much higher level of public awareness would provide the best hope for political resolve being generated to meet this monumental challenge. But business and industry will have to fashion the solutions needed by anticipating the future and providing sustainable alternatives. If they do not, then they would rightly be seen as part of the problem.