Fuelling the dream: India can take a different trajectory in the energy sector

The evolution of India as a superpower in 2020 presupposes rapid economic growth in the intervening period. If the nation has to reach that status, then the rate of growth would necessarily have to be 8-10 per cent per annum. The record of the developed countries shows that the growth of consumption of energy has been higher than the rate of economic growth itself. Do we have to follow the same path? Perhaps this trajectory is not essential for India, mainly because energy supply is a capital intensive activity. For a capital-scarce economy like India, a very different path would have to be explored and pursued, a path that does not demand the same levels of capital for the energy sector that were required by the developed nations at the same stage of development. When the developed countries were at the same stage, there was limited choice of technologies and fuels, which constrained them to follow an energy-intensive path of growth. Fortunately, for a variety of global as well as local reasons, the developed countries have had to create technological solutions that are far less energy intensive. We could employ them effectively. Winds of Change: India may have to depend more on renewable energy resources Conventional forms of energy supply and consumption cause serious environmental problems both at the local and the global level. The developed countries essentially grew in the initial stages through activities that caused massive pollution, and only at a later stage of growth did they address these problems. Yet, as far as global environmental problems are concerned, such as the problem of high concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the developed countries have not yet even begun to tackle them effectively. This has led to the serious threat of climate change which would have a harmful impact worldwide, more particularly in the developing countries. On the other hand, there is a growing articulation of fears that the developing countries would add to the emissions of greenhouse gases, and that some curbs would have to be placed on the growth of these emissions particularly in large countries like China, India, Brazil and Indonesia. Even if there are no agreements imposing curbs on the growth of such emissions in the developing countries, there would be strong moral pressure on a country like India to follow a less carbon-intensive path of development. Furthermore, we have much higher levels of awareness on environmental problems than was the case with the developed countries at similar stages in their historical evolution. Even if governments and corporate bodies were for growth with high levels of pollution, civil society would not accept such a path of development. We have to find a more environmentally benign path of energy development in India than the path that developed countries took. Carbon, the bad word Reverting to the vision of India as a superpower in 2020 to be attained through high economic growth rate, it would then have to be based on low-energy intensities across the board and the use of low-carbon intensity fuels. This means that it is not merely the supply of energy that requires a path very different from the one taken in the past, but some of our major energy consuming sectors would require a totally different set of technologies and a configuration radically different from what we have established in the past five decades. For instance, the transport sector would require the Indian railways attaining much higher levels of efficiency for reversing the trend of traffic moving from rail to road as has been the case over the last 50 years. Even more important would be the establishment of efficient public transport systems in towns and cities across the country. This is as much a challenge in technology choices as it is of devising appropriate institutional structures and ensuring a financial system that would cover the cost of public transport in urban areas, which inevitably runs on the basis of subsidies. Hence, we would need to devise institutional measures and fiscal systems in urban locations that would make it feasible to establish and operate public transport systems in an efficient manner with high-capacity utilisation. One important consideration in defining India's superpower status would be the establishment of an adequate measure of security in the supply of energy. Energy supply systems generally have long gestation periods. Hence, our vision of India's future cannot stop at the year 2020. The energy system at the end of the second decade of this century would have to be based on what we foresee as challenges and their solutions far beyond that particular year. The International Energy Agency, for instance, has projected that in the year 2030 India would be consuming over 5 million barrels of oil a day. This growth in demand is predicated on a massive increase in passenger vehicle ownership and use in the country, with the total number reaching almost 200 million vehicles by 2020. This scenario is clearly not acceptable, because such a projection carries with it a grave danger to the energy security of the country not only for the terminal period of 2030, but much earlier. Energy security is not necessarily an issue of physical limitations in supply, even though the Arab oil boycott of 1973 directed against specific countries is still fresh in the memory of policy makers. Energy security has to be translated into economic terms. If our oil consumption in 2030 exceeds 5 million barrels a day, we would, under the most optimistic of scenarios, be heavily dependent on oil imports. Any sudden increase in oil prices in the global market would have a serious impact on the Indian economy, an outcome that must be avoided at all cost, if we are to become and remain an economic superpower. Undoubtedly some relief would be possible through holding an adequate strategic petroleum reserve and purchasing equity in oil reserves in other countries, as indeed we are attempting to do quite aggressively today. These measures, however, can only meet part of the challenge. Revamp to revitalise Essentially, India has to restructure its energy sector, and ensure that the vast rural areas of this country, which have no access to modern forms of energy, are able to establish decentralised sources of supply using local renewable resources. At the same time our conventional energy supply industry requires major improvements in efficiency, such as a substantial reduction in transmission and distribution, technological upgradation of existing facilities and efficient standards of operation. 1897 India's first 130 MW hydroelectric power plant set up near Darjeeling 1947 Installed power capacity of the country is 1,300 MW 1950-51 Modest crude oil production of 2.5 lakh tonnes 1975 National Thermal Power Corporation incorporated as a public sector unit 1986-87 Power generation goes up to 187.6 billion units 1987 12,353 villages electrified 1990-95 India is the fifth largest emitter of fossil-fuel-derived carbon dioxide (a greenhouse gas) and its total emissions grow at an annual average rate of 6 per cent in the 90s 1995 Indian power generation capacity increases at the rate of 8.4 per cent per annum in the 1980s, 5 per cent per annum in the early 1990s and drops to almost half of this in 1995. From the fourth Five Year Plan onwards, the energy sector accounts for more than 20 per cent of the total plan expenditure 1997-98 Total commercial energy supply is 263 million tonnes of oil equivalent 2001 Total installed power generation capacity is over 1,01,660 MW. This includes 25,142 MW hydro power, 71,518 MW thermal power, 2,860 MW nuclear power and 1,270 MW wind power 2001 Major consumers of electricity are industry (24.5 per cent), agriculture/irrigation (31.2 per cent), houses (16.8 per cent), commercial (4.8 per cent) and railways (2.3 per cent) As mentioned earlier, a totally different transport mix is imperative for the country to ensure energy security. We also need to diversify hydrocarbon supplies from a total reliance on liquid fuels to much larger consumption of natural gas. This author came up with the initial feasibility of a natural gas pipeline from Iran to India through Pakistan way back in 1989 in association with former Iranian minister Dr Ali Shams Ardekani. Statesmanship, economic self-interest and larger geopolitical considerations have to make this project a reality. Similarly, natural gas pipelines would be required to meet a large part of India's energy demand over the next four decades by tapping supplies from Myanmar, Bangladesh and countries in Central Asia. Wind and sun In the longer term, however, India has to move towards greater use of renewable energy sources, for which a beginning has to be made wherever economically viable today. It is utterly wasteful for this country, for instance, to use electricity for heating water in our homes and commercial establishments. Strong regulation and appropriate pricing signals must move us in the direction of using solar water heaters, a technology which is completely viable with the large resource of solar energy that we possess round the year in most parts of our country. We must restructure our energy sector and ensure that the vast rural areas opt for more viable technologies like harnessing of the plentiful solar energy A clear plan and vision is required for developing technologies and supply systems in an economically viable manner for harnessing wind, biomass (including the production of bio-diesel grown in degraded lands), hydropower-both big and small-and ultimately hydrogen energy from renewable sources. And while there are several prejudices among certain sections of society against nuclear power, this technology has to be considered seriously for the security of this country's future. We have to begin with a demystification of nuclear power through a vigorous public debate, which would enhance the acceptability of this technology. In conclusion, the emergence of this country as a superpower in 2020 cannot rest on a vague and make-believe desire. It has to rest on a clearly articulated direction and a carefully-engineered approach to the integrated development of our energy sector that ensures growth, security of supply, environmental standards and access to decent levels of heating, lighting and cooking energy for all the people of this land.