The drought dilemma: planning for the rainless day

The current drought in several parts of the country could affect over a 100 million people and their livelihood. The increasing water scarcity will drive perhaps over a million people away from their homes in search of areas where there is water and, therefore, the hope of life. This problem of environmental refugees is likely to become acute in the coming years, with increased population pressure and growing scarcity of water in several parts of the country. At the core of this crisis is the neglect of the environment and natural resources since Independence. Industrialisation at the cost of preservation of natural resources has been the rule rather than the exception. The problem exists not merely at the national level but has global dimensions, particularly with the threat of climate change, evidence of which is before our eyes. On Earth Day 1995, Tata Energy Research Institute launched a major project to assess the physical damage to our natural resources in India since Independence and project where the current path might take us in the next 50 years. Economic values were carefully estimated for the extent of damage and degradation that has occurred and recently estimates have been produced of the severity of the problem that we are likely to face up to 2047. What is happening in parts of the country should not come as a surprise and should jolt us into action to prevent greater disaster. Gross mismanagement Groundwater is also overexploited in our cities including Delhi. In Ahmedabad, during the 1980s, the water-table is estimated to have fallen by 200 cm to 250 cm per annum. The scenario in the country is one of extreme mismanagement of water. Solutions require a long-term assessment to be made and urgent implementation of steps that go far beyond the emergency measures that are being considered currently. The most important step that needs to be taken is that of pricing water on a rational basis. Provision of free electricity in several parts of the country is a distortion that merely helps rich farmers but deprives future generations of access to basic drinking water. This also brings about distorted choices in the crops grown, because with free or underpriced water supply, farmers shift to those crops which are profitable even if they are intensive of water use, without regard to the depletion of groundwater resources. Overall, if no changes in the management of water resources are effected, the demand for fresh water in the country is expected to rise from 564 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 1997 to 1,048 bcm in 2047. In three particular areas including the western plains and Kutch, the northern plains as well as the Bengal and Assam plains, availability of fresh water will be less than 75 per cent of the demand. But such average values of water availability do not reveal the nature of the problem, because scarcity can vary substantially from place to place and fluctuate with changes in consumption as well as supply. Plugging leakages Water supply when assessed on the basis of availability in river basins presents a very uneven picture. In the various agro-ecological zones, there would be a growing imbalance between demand for water and available supply. Overall, therefore, major initiatives have to be taken for staving of recurring crises that are likely to take place in the country. In some locations with growing severity of water problems, there would be a tendency for those hard hit by the crisis to move into other areas, particularly into urban locations. Several initiatives are required to manage the long-term water challenge. What applies to water, of course, applies to other natural resources as well. Firstly, pricing of water for different forms of consumption has to be determined on a rational basis. Currently, the market signals from heavily underpriced, and in some cases free, water supply do not promote efficiency in supply and use. To bring about rationalisation of water tariffs, independent regulatory bodies would need to be established, since water supply is a utility much like electric power. Second, the management of water resources, including pricing decisions has to be transferred into the hands of local bodies. But over a period of time the management of water would have to become an economically viable activity. Finally, agricultural extension systems in this country will have to aggressively promote technologies that are efficient in the supply and use of water. Independent regulation can provide major benefits in plugging leakages in the entire water distribution system. The water supply sector also needs a combination of public and private sector partnerships. As in the case of other natural resources, efficient water management would go a long way through local innovation and through the empowerment of local communities in managing resources. Water harvesting and participative watershed management by the community could bring about substantial increases in efficiency in the water cycle. The conservation of water resources and storage would be extremely important if we wish to avoid crises and deprivation in the future. However, this may not be the only answer, because we know that there are parts of this country where rainfall is so inadequate that even with high levels of collection and storage, the needs of the population both for human consumption and other economic activities will be much higher. For instance, Rajasthan with its low rainfall is deprived of natural supply of water, whereas in West Bengal and the North-East, excessive rain leads to large-scale siltation and runoff, which involves wastage not only of water but also the soil that is carried with it. Transfer of water from areas that are surplus to those that are deficient is, therefore, inescapable. Dangers ahead Water resource management has linkages with the management of other natural resources as well. The large-scale deforestation taking place in our mountains has serious implications for water supply in the mountains as well as the plains. For instance, in the Himalayan range deforestation has led to the drying up of millions of streams which flowed due to greenery and the large spread of roots all over the mountainside to provide moisture as well hold topsoil in place. There is also need for ongoing study of glacier movements throughout the Himalayan range. There is already some evidence that climate change is causing some of the glaciers in the region to melt. This would have serious implications in the future, and only emphasises the need for studying the likely impacts of projected climate change, so that we are able to take effective steps by preparing ourselves. We need to come up not only with a clear perception of the options before us but also mount a major campaign for informing the public of the dangers ahead and the solutions which need to be devised through a partnership between the government and civil society at all levels.