Degrees of conviction

Attention on the subject of climate change appears to wax and wane in this country, having reached a peak in 2007 when the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) came out providing strong evidence of human influence on the earth’s climate. The report also detailed the serious impacts of climate change that would occur worldwide if no action was taken to deal with this challenge. Recently, however, the media has focused on India’s position in the global negotiations towards an international agreement expected in Copenhagen in December 2009. As is generally the case with issues involving long-term implications, several mis-impressions and myths have been aired by some in positions of responsibility. While discussing issues related to climate change and India’s stand in international negotiations, it is important to recall some of the scientific findings of the AR4.

There is now “unequivocal” evidence of the human influence on the global climate and its impact which would become far more serious in the future. During the 20th century, the average temperature increase across the globe was 0.74°C and sea level rise 17 cm. But climate change is not occurring merely as a smooth, steady and linear increase in temperature. It is in essence a disruption of the entire climate system, resulting in increased frequency, intensity and duration of floods, droughts and heat waves worldwide. There are also major changes in the water cycle, not only in the nature and magnitude of evaporation from land and water bodies across the globe but also in precipitation patterns. In general, at the upper latitudes in the northern hemisphere an increase in precipitation is observed while in some sub-tropical and tropical regions as well as the Mediterranean there is a decline. But there is also a global increase in extreme precipitation events, essentially with large quantities of rainfall or snow during short periods, creating problems of water availability. With hundreds of millions of farmers in developing countries dependent on rainfed agriculture, these changes in precipitation patterns spell increasing crises in several locations which not only have serious implications for food security but also social stability. Such effects and the overall disruption of climate are likely to increase if the increase in concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which creates human induced climate change, continues unchecked.

Based on the scientific evidence provided by the IPCC the global community agreed on the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 and to implement its provisions in the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. Unfortunately, the US and Australia refused to ratify the protocol, thereby reducing its political effectiveness as well as the quantity of emissions reduction envisaged. Commitments under the protocol are designed to run out in 2012 and will be succeeded by the agreement expected to come into place in Copenhagen.

India’s negotiating position has been guided by the principle of “common but differentiated responsibility” included in the UNFCCC, which requires the developed countries to take action initially and provide financial assistance and access to technology to the developing countries for adaptation to the impacts of climate change as well as for mitigation. However, India can ignore the reality of climate change at heavy loss to Indian society. We are not only affected by sea level rise along our vast coastline but should also be concerned about the low lying country of Bangladesh and small island states not only in our neighbourhood like the Maldives but elsewhere too. Melting snow and other impacts will affect the availability of water in different parts of this country quite apart from negative impacts of climate change on agriculture and human health. There is, for instance, growing evidence that climate change is already affecting the yields of wheat negatively.

Against this background India has to take a forward looking and responsible position in dealing with this overall challenge. Undoubtedly, reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases must be carried out urgently and adequately by the developed countries. But to label India’s agreeing to limit global temperature increase to 2°C as a sell-out is a truly distorted view. It is in the interest of India and the citizens of this country both in this generation and those yet to come to ensure that global temperature increase is limited to 2°C. By emphasising this ceiling India can in fact put additional pressure on the developed countries to mitigate emissions of GHGs. The IPCC AR4 has clearly assessed the trajectory for stabilisation of temperature increase between 2.0 and 2.4°C requiring the peaking of global emissions of GHGs no later than 2015. To that extent the G-8 Summit setting a target of 2°C but not specifying goals for reduction of emissions in the short term, say by 2020, clearly ignores this significant finding of peaking by 2015.

India should also be concerned about other developing countries which would become the worst victims of the impacts of climate change, such as parts of sub-Saharan Africa and most of the small island states. It has been projected by the IPCC that as early as 2020 there would be 75 to 250 million people in Africa living under conditions of water stress on account of climate change, and in some parts the decline in agricultural yields may reach 50 per cent. Not to accept the upper limit on climate change on the part of India would represent a complete dereliction of moral responsibility to the global community and our own people. If anything, India agreeing to the 2°C limit should be hailed as an achievement and a step forward.

The prime minister has taken a timely initiative in developing the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC), which adequately reflects India’s responsibility in dealing with this problem. Of the eight missions identified under this plan, the Solar Mission represents the most important strategic component. It is, therefore, important that India should launch this mission with very clear goals, because urgent action is required for ensuring energy security for our expanding population. The NAPCC also provides adequate attention to adaptation measures, because irrespective of the most ambitious global efforts to reduce emissions of GHGs, a certain level of climate change would continue for several decades, for which adaptation would have to be put in place effectively.

Copenhagen represents an extremely important opportunity for the world to deal with the challenge of climate change, and India must continue with a principled role in the negotiations leading up to Copenhagen. But to ignore the scientific realities of climate change would go against the interests of Indians of this generation and those yet to come.