COP-6: hopes and hurdles

The Sixth Conference of the Parties (COP-6) is taking place at The Hague to hammer out a consensus on actions to be taken for protecting the earth?s climate. It was three years ago that in Kyoto the protocol that goes by the name of the city was drafted and agreed on. Admittedly, the draft that was approved came in the final hours of the Kyoto COP just when the conference appeared doomed to failure. Therefore, many of the details that could have given the protocol operational clarity were obviously not worked out. These were to be worked out during the deliberations of the subsidiary bodies set up under the FCCC (Framework Convention on Climate Change) and the two Conferences of the Parties that have already taken place since Kyoto. Unfortunately, progress has been slow and hardly noticeable. There is, therefore, much expectation that something must and should happen in The Hague. A major factor slowing down progress is the reluctance of the US to ratify the protocol and to take domestic actions that would enable it to meet the targets for reduction of emissions of GHGs (greenhouse gases) agreed as part of the Kyoto Protocol. The current political stalemate in the US hardly helps to break the deadlock, and the other parties to the FCCC are much too divided to take firm and conclusive action. Yet, if the Kyoto Protocol has to become operational, the world would have to go ahead without ratification by the US. This requires countries that account for at least 55% of the total emissions of GHGs to ratify the protocol. Since the US itself accounts for 25%, the choices for the other Parties become restricted and in the absence of a clear consensus among all the Parties excluding the US, ratification becomes a matter of doubt. Nevertheless, unless the world takes firm and timely action to reduce the emissions of GHGs, the impacts on various parts of this planet resulting from climate change could prove disastrous. The TAR (Third Assessment Report) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is under finalization, appears to indicate that the extent and nature of climate change may be far more serious than the conclusions of the Second Assessment Report. This fact has been reported in the media through leakage of some parts of the TAR, and there is no reason to doubt that this would be the case. Therefore, COP-6 is an important landmark event, and it is hoped that those involved in the negotiations will find a way out and a way forward.