Caring for an angry earth

The answers to the perils of climate change will come from intellectual innovation.

The environmental problems facing the world and the depletion of natural resources in different regions of the planet require solutions with a strong intellectual content. A good example of this is the fact that it took the world at least a century-and-a-half to realise the effects of emissions of greenhouse gases, most notably carbon dioxide, and to accept its influence on climate.

This delay was in spite of the fact that scientists as far back as the end of the 19th century highlighted the danger of increasing emissions of carbon dioxide on the earth's climate. The reason for this enormous delay lies in a lack of scientific analysis of the problem as well as gaps that existed earlier in the dissemination of information of a scientific nature.

This situation has changed substantially over the years, and not only are scientists working in large numbers and through widespread efforts on a number of societal problems today, the spread of modern information services through the media also ensures dissemination of relevant information for the benefit of decision-makers and the public at large.

The complexities of established patterns of development are also brought out by the fact that today every human activity is fuelled by modern sources of energy, which in turn lead to growing emissions of greenhouse gases. Between 1970 and 2004 there has been a 70 per cent increase in the emissions of greenhouse gases.

Between 1995 and 2005 there was a 20 per cent increase in carbon dioxide radiative forcing i.e. the amount of warming that has been caused by increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. At the same time, this has been a period of unprecedented economic growth and increase in the consumption of fossil fuels.

The question, therefore, is whether the human race can afford to continue on the same path of development that the developed countries have established during the last century-and-a-half. Say, if China, India and Brazil were to follow the same trajectory of growth and consumption of fossil fuels as the developed world, the extent of climate change could cross dangerous levels.

Similarly, if the developed countries were not to reduce their emissions substantially in the future, the planet's climate system would be under serious threat. Therefore, there is an urgent need to analyse future choices and arrive at a paradigm that would ensure growth of human welfare without degradation of the natural processes and ecosystems that we have taken for granted.

Such assessment of choices and analysis of their basic characteristics need to be carried out by capable institutions that not only assess the economic and policy aspects of future choices, but also come up with technological solutions that provide some answers.

The Energy & Resources Institute (TERI) is one such institution. For a country the size and significance of India, energy-environment-climate change initiatives cannot be viewed only within a national context. Growing concerns about energy security and the inequitable efforts to combat climate change require a broad global approach to solve these problems. Consequently, TERI, has set up centres within India and abroad. TERI is therefore not only able to mobilise intellectual resources and information from every important region of the globe but also disseminate information in different societies that often take decisions and form perceptions about India without proper facts and analysis.

The challenge for TERI is to ensure that while other developed countries see the logic and are persuaded to take appropriate mitigation measures, we in India adopt a pattern of growth that has the essential characteristics of sustainable development. The Working Group III Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identifies a large number of co-benefits from climate change and mitigation measures. For instance, a movement away from fossil fuels to low carbon sources of energy would reduce local air pollution and provide health benefits.

Provision of public transport would result in lower levels of congestion as well as reduced air pollution. More importantly, this report also highlighted the place of lifestyle changes and shifts in consumption patterns as an important part of mitigation measures. In fact the developed countries would need to alter their lifestyle and consumption patterns without loss of economic welfare and through the practice of activities that minimise the adverse impacts on natural resources and the environment.