The buses and bicycles option

There has been a great deal of debate on air quality in Delhi, measures taken to bring about an improvement, and their effectiveness. There is a popular perception that CNG, which has been introduced in the city in recent months, has made a substantial difference to air quality in the city. In actual fact this is not borne out by data on air quality provided both by the CPCB from its seven monitoring stations and TERI from its eleven stations. Undoubtedly, there has been a significant improvement in air quality at CPCB's monitoring station located at the ITO crossing, but it would be very difficult to ascribe any improvements that have taken place to the impact of transport-related emissions in general and CNG-related emissions in particular. Washout effect The Supreme Court ruling mandating CNG for public transport vehicles in Delhi actually came into effect at the beginning of April this year. Interestingly, during the period April-May of this year, the frequency and magnitude of rainfall has been substantially higher than that of the corresponding period last year. April-May 2001 saw 22 rainy days as opposed to 9 during April-May 2000. Correspondingly, average daily rainfall for the same two periods has been 5.20 mm versus 1.86 mm, and average relative humidity was 65% this year as compared to 40% least year. Air quality scientists are aware of the phenomenon called washout effect, which essentially is a result of rainfall washing the air and removing pollutants as a result. The biggest problem with Delhi's air has been a high level of Respirable Suspended Particulates (RSPs), i.e., particulates that are finer than 10 micrometers. Particulate matter results in a larger incidence of respiratory diseases such as bronchitis and arthritis, particularly in children, the elderly, and those who are vulnerable and pre-disposed to these diseases. Lung cancer is also often associated with this form of pollution. Public transport crucial One major factor that would have an effect on air quality in Delhi, and is already showing some benefits, is the conformity of vehicles to Euro norms. Already around 9% of the vehicles registered in Delhi conform to Euro norms as compared to 90% pre-Euro 1 vehicles. But quite apart from upgradation of technology, it would be far more effective to increase the role of public transport in the city. In the short run, this translates into an increase in buses being used. In effect, a single bus can replace the passenger traffic carried by 24 cars. Hence, if we are able to provide efficient and adequate bus transportation, there would be a shift from personalized to public transport. The structure of the transport mix in any location is critical to the improvement of air quality. It has to be borne in mind that as yet barely 1% of the total vehicles in the city have been converted to CNG, and even after the Supreme Court order is fully implemented, there would be only 3% of the vehicular fleet in Delhi that would be running on CNG. Whether such a figure is achievable is entirely another matter, because based on current assessments, it would not be possible for the city of Delhi to receive a supply of CNG in keeping with the number of vehicles that are required to be converted, and in any case the infrastructure for ensuring timely and efficient supply is not likely to be in place for quite some time. The Shanghai way A recent study on the subject of transportation and environmental impacts describes the scene in the city of Shanghai. To promote an expansion of bus transportation the municipal bus company was deregulated and several independent operating companies created to compete for operating concessions. Bus transport accounts for 39% of the total traffic in Shanghai. At the other end of the transport spectrum, Shanghai residents own 6-7 million bicycles that account for roughly 1 bicycle for every two residents. There is effective regulation of private transport in that city. For instance, Shanghai has several times the income of Delhi but less than half the number of private vehicles owned by its population of 13 million. This is achieved through various measures. Firstly, to acquire a driver's license a resident has to enrol in an official driving school at a cost of $ 500, which is a major expense for most residents of the city. The driving course is rigorous involving three weeks of classroom sessions,more than a month of behind-the-wheel training, and three separate road tests. Contrast this with the ease with which a driving license can often be obtained in Delhi. It is also expensive to own and operate a car in Shanghai. Fuel prices are as high as those in developed countries and parking costs are $ 1-3 per hour in downtown Shanghai. The biggest barrier to ownership, of course, is the purchase price of the automobile. Shanghai has also moved towards the use of cleaner fuels, and CNG is one such important fuel. However, China produces large quantities of natural gas, and the country actually has a larger domestic supply of natural gas than petroleum. Also, Shanghai has access to gas in the East China Sea as well as North-West China. Within the country, an LNG pipeline is being constructed form North-West China to Shanghai, and this is scheduled to be completed in 2007. In due course, China also plans to import large quantities of gas by pipeline. The use of CNG is seen as an important measure for achieving energy security. CNG drawbacks In the case of India, the diversion of natural gas for the transport sector in Delhi would actually impact on supplies to fertilizer plants, which are already facing scarcity in supply of natural gas, and for which the HBJ pipeline had originally been designed. These plants have, therefore, been installed with technology that can only use natural gas as a feedstock. At the same time, India will very soon be importing natural gas in the form of LNG, which would make CNG far more expensive than is the case currently. In Mumbai, the cost of CNG is already approximately 50% higher than that in Delhi. A further increase brought about by import of gas will only worsen the problem. If CNG is the only fuel used for bus transportation in Delhi, the price to the average commuter is likely to double, with the increase in fuel costs and the higher capital cost required for a CNG bus. The effect could then be of driving away users of bus transport to two-wheelers, three-wheelers, and cars. All of this will only lead to higher levels of pollution. There is no shortcut to rational transport planning and ensuring a mix of vehicles thatwould inherently reduce pollution levels. We are currently going through a situation of a free for all in allowing rapid increases in the fleet of cars and two-wheelers being used in the city, with an actual decline in the use of buses, largely because of the CNG fiasco that we see today. Ultimately, we have to move away from this polluting structure of transport and provide safe and convenient conditions for greater use of cleaner transport, including bicycles, apart from buses and more efficient vehicles. Bicycles and bicyclists have become an endangered species in Delhi, and this tragic trend has to be reversed by providing safe bicycle tracks along the roads of the city.